The picture across Britain on the eve of crucial elections

A poor performance in May really could be the beginning of the end for the prime minister, who has insisted he would never resign. Parties of government often perform badly in mid-term elections - and that's what Labour spinners will be saying after the elections - but Labour's dramatic fall from a landslide general election in 2024 is remarkable. Just under two years ago, Labour looked set to dominate the UK. It was expected to take Scotland back from the SNP for the first time since 2007 and was going to continue its winning streak in Wales. But Starmer's unpopularity means Labour looks set to not win in Wales for the first time, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. Starmer is so unpopular in Scotland that in February, the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar, held a press conference demanding he quit as prime minister. But that did not shift the dial, and Labour could end up with not only fewer seats than the Scottish National Party, but Reform UK too. If Labour loses significant ground in England, and fails in Wales and Scotland, it's likely his MPs will seek to replace him with either Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, or someone else. Starmer's survival is not the only thing on the line here - results in Scotland and Wales could spark the breakup of the United Kingdom. If Plaid Cymru and the SNP win their elections, it would be the first time that each devolved nation is run by nationalist parties that want to leave the UK - along with Sinn Féin, which has the most seats in Northern Ireland. The SNP says winning a majority in May would be proof Scots want another independence referendum after they voted to remain in 2014. Plaid wants independence for Wales as well, but the nationalist party says it will not be calling for a referendum immediately if it wins in May. Leader Rhun ap Iorworth says they need to prove themselves as a party that can run Wales before campaigning for independence if it wins a second consecutive election. Sinn Féin, which is in power in Northern Ireland, also wants to leave the UK however, that would be more complicated because of the Good Friday Agreement. It's been said since the general election in 2024 that the UK's two party system could be coming to an end - and these elections are a chance for Reform UK and the Greens to prove that. Reform UK's Nigel Farage has pledged to replace the Conservatives and Zack Polanski says the Greens want to do the same with Labour. Both parties are still considered small in the grand scheme of things; they have very little representation across the UK - but by beating Labour and the Tories, they will show their supporters an alternative could be possible. But a lot is at stake for them too - if Reform UK fails to emulate its poll rating in these upcoming elections, people might wonder whether their support has peaked and may start considering other parties. If the Greens perform poorly it could show voters the environmentalists can only win in pockets of the UK. Both parties are predicted to do well; Reform thinks it can win in Wales and Polanski thinks he can turn London Green. But we can’t forget the Liberal Democrats, traditionally the UK’s third party. They often perform well outside general elections when Labour or Conservative supporters want to try something else. Aside from the wider political implications, the elections on May 7th are hugely important for choosing who's in charge of things like education and health in Scotland and Wales, and who will make local decisions on things like road works and planning applications in England. So now its for you to decide which party will run your bin collections, and which party you want to put in the bin. • Subscribe to ITV News on YouTube: http://bit.ly/2lOHmNj • Get breaking news and more stories at http://www.itv.com/news Follow ITV News on TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@itvnews?lang=en Follow ITV News on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/itvnews/ Follow ITV News on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/ Follow ITV News on X: https://twitter.com/itvnews