Did the U.S. target an Iran elementary school?

Are federal employees making money off of prediction markets? Did Iran bomb its own school? Are military leaders hoping for the rapture? It’s Misinformation Monday and I’m covering everything to do with Iran. Here’s more on prediction markets: Prediction markets, led by Kalshi and its chief competitor, Polymarket, are in the midst of an all-out sprint to turn almost every happening—from the world-moving to the mundane—into an online bet that can be won or lost. Their surging popularity has sparked waves of concern over allegations of insider trading—and how speculators have hit it big on macabre wagers over war, death and crime. Crypto-analytics firm Bubblemaps identified what it called “six suspected insiders” who made $1.2 million wagering that the U.S. would strike Iran last month. On Thursday, two Democratic senators, Amy Klobuchar and Jeff Merkley, introduced legislation to restrict federal officials from trading on prediction markets. Proponents say the markets don’t count as gambling, and that they harness the wisdom of crowds to accurately predict future events. Polymarket and Kalshi have recruited allies in high places, including Donald Trump Jr., who is an adviser to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket. As they attempt to build market share, both Kalshi and Polymarket have aimed marketing at an eager group of users that isn’t known for financial discretion: college students. Caption from article by Katherine Long, Kevin T. Dugan, Dana Mattioli and Angel Au-Yeung, Wall Street Journal.