AI’s "Free Software" Boom Just Showed How the Bubble Dies
House of El: AI • 423.7K views • 1d ago
Description
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Investors are making two enormous bets on AI at the same time: that it is powerful enough to make traditional software dramatically less valuable, and that the companies building the infrastructure behind it may not earn enough to repay what they have borrowed. Adobe is being punished despite record results, AI-built clones are appearing for almost nothing, and yet lenders are simultaneously charging AI companies more for money and pulling back from some of the riskiest deals. This video follows where the value is actually going, because if AI is destroying billions in one part of the economy but that money is not clearly showing up somewhere else, then one of the biggest assumptions behind the boom may be wrong.
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📌 Chapters
00:00 Introduction
01:50 The Free Photoshop
06:16 Why Free Never Wins
11:31 The Lenders Pull Back
17:01 Who Holds the Risk?
20:10 Is Software Over?
📚 SOURCES & FURTHER READING
ArtCraft’s free “Crafting Apps”, including PhotoCraft and FilmCraft (ArtCraft, Oct 2026)
https://getartcraft.com/apps
ArtCraft source code (GitHub, Oct 2026)
https://github.com/storytold/artcraft
“Software is over”: developer uses AI to build free Adobe alternatives (TechSpot, 8 Oct 2026)
https://www.techspot.com/news/114136-software-over-developer-uses-ai-build-free-adobe.html
Developer recreates Adobe’s Creative Cloud suite with AI, and PhotoCraft’s roadmap (TweakTown, 8 Oct 2026)
https://www.tweaktown.com/news/113989/developer-says-software-is-over-after-using-ai-to-recreate-adobes-entire-creative-cloud-suite-for-free/index.html
Testing ArtCraft: smart-filter results and user reports (36Kr, 11 Oct 2026)
https://eu.36kr.com/de/p/4020888466542726
Same developer releases AI-built Word, Excel and PowerPoint clones (TechSpot, 13 Oct 2026)
https://www.techspot.com/news/114179-developer-who-cloned-photoshop-using-ai-has-now.html
Adobe agrees to $150 million settlement over subscription cancellations (US Department of Justice, 13 Mar 2026)
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/adobe-agrees-150-million-settlement-and-injunction-resolve-alleged-violations-restore-online
Adobe Q3 fiscal 2026 results (Adobe investor relations, 10 Sep 2026)
https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf
Adobe share price history (Yahoo Finance)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADBE/history/
Adobe keeps falling despite record results (24/7 Wall St, 12 Oct 2026)
https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/12/adobe-keeps-cratering-one-wall-street-pros-thesis-projects-50-gains-in-the-next-year/
GIMP (Wikipedia)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIMP
LibreOffice (Wikipedia)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LibreOffice
Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 14 Oct 2026)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
FOMC statement raising the federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, 16 Sep 2026)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
AI borrowing slows as investors grow wary of debt binge (Financial Times, 10 Oct 2026)
https://www.ft.com/content/9c13d40e-d2b2-45d5-921c-a68cd4b308f9
Global AI debt issuance to top $500 billion in 2026, Morgan Stanley says (Reuters, 10 Jun 2026)
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/global-ai-debt-issuance-to-top-500-billion-in-2026-morgan-stanley-says-4734497
AI credit default swap spreads widen sharply (Reuters, 15 Oct 2026)
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ai-credit-default-swap-spreads-widen-sharply-4950549
CoreWeave bond yields near 15% as stock sinks on AI debt fears (Startup Fortune, 15 Oct 2026)
https://startupfortune.com/coreweave-bond-yields-near-15-percent-as-stock-sinks-on-ai-debt-fears/
Oracle seeks financial shield from Project Jupiter data centre (Gizmodo, 24 Sep 2026)
https://gizmodo.com/ai-bubble-watch-oracle-seeks-financial-shield-from-massive-data-center-project-2000816870
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan: AI investing “almost like they are in a casino” (Benzinga, 12 Oct 2026)
https://www.benzinga.com/node/62305417
Global stocks sell-off deepens as chipmakers tumble (Financial Times, 15 Oct 2026)
https://www.ft.com/content/cf5f1209-da29-4ce1-b425-0e83818bf9ec
Anthropic’s reported revenue jump and the AI jitters (Investing.com, 15 Oct 2026)
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/ai-jitters-in-focus-anthropics-reported-revenue-jump--whats-moving-markets-4950733
TSMC reports third-quarter 2026 results (TSMC, SEC filing, 15 Oct 2026)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000726/a3q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm
AI ArtificialIntelligence Adobe OpenAI Anthropic AIBubble Software WallStreet TechIndustry